Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, September 20th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite mostly favorable economic news. Stocks are contributing to the lower bond market by going into rally mode this morning. The Dow is currently up 205 points while the Nasdaq has gained 74 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (3.07%), but slight gains late yesterday should keep this morning’s mortgage pricing very close to yesterday’s early rates.

2/32

Bonds

30 yr - 3.07%

205

Dow

26,611

74

NASDAQ

8,024

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Negative

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

The first of this morning’s economic news came in last week’s unemployment figures. They revealed that 201,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was lower than the 209,000 that was expected and a decline from the previous week’s 204,000 initial filings. Because declining initial claims is a sign of employment sector strength, we should consider the news negative for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately though, this is only a weekly snapshot so its impact on today’s mortgage rates has been minimal.

Medium

Positive

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

We also got August's Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM ET. They announced that last month’s home resales were unchanged from July’s level when analysts were expecting to see a small increase. The release also showed that sales have fallen 1.5% over the past year. While higher end sales have grown, sales of homes priced below $250,000 have steadily declined over the past year. Weaker sales are good news for bonds and mortgage pricing because a softening housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult.

Low

Positive

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

The final report of the week was August’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), also at 10:00 AM. The Conference Board announced a 0.4% rise in the indicators, meaning they are predicting modest to moderate economic growth over the next several months. Because analysts were expecting to see a 0.5% rise, we can consider the data slightly favorable for mortgage rates even though the news did not directly influence today’s pricing.

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Unknown

None

Tomorrow has nothing of importance scheduled for release that is expected to affect mortgage pricing. We still may see some movement in bonds and a slight change to rates as traders digest the recent move and prepare for next week’s FOMC events. This is especially true if stocks rally or post sizable losses tomorrow.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.